Severe Weather Live Coverage Continued - Large Tornadoes, Large Hail, Very Heavy Rain

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into the evening from central and northeast Oklahoma into Missouri and central Illinois. Tornadoes, large/damaging hail and severe gusts all are possible.

...OK to IL...
Given latest model guidance and observational trends, have opted to upgrade to MDT risk along a narrow corridor from northeast OK into central MO. Consensus continues to grow in model guidance that several discrete supercells will develop along this corridor this afternoon and evening, as low-level moisture streams northward and shear profiles rapidly strengthen. The primary negative indicator of a more significant severe weather event involves the large scale
pattern, and the large midlevel height rises that are occurring
throughout the Plains. However, the latest water vapor loop and model guidance suggest very subtle shortwave troughs embedded in the upper flow, with one currently over southwest OK. This feature would arrive into the risk area around peak heating, potentially helping initiation. Forecast soundings suggest an environment favorable for strong tornadoes and very large hail and if discrete supercells can
form.

It is unclear how far southwest the development will occur into central OK. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest 1-2 storms near OKC that could be severe if they develop, with a conditional risk of significant tornadoes and hail. However, confidence in persistent thunderstorms that far southwest is lower than farther northeast.

Storms that form over central MO will spread eastward into
central/northern IL during the evening, with the continued risk of supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. It is unclear how rich the low-level moisture will be ahead of the storms, but shear profiles will be quite favorable in this area.

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